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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.