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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."